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The 2023-2025 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle is entering its final stages, and while South Africa has already secured their place in the WTC Final, the second spot is still up for grabs. India, Australia, and Sri Lanka are battling it out for the remaining slot, with various scenarios that could determine who joins South Africa in the final. Let’s break down the current standings, and how each team’s remaining matches could impact their qualification.
India’s Road to the Final
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Current Percentage Points: 55.89%
Remaining Matches: 2 (vs Australia, away)
India’s road to the final is straightforward but challenging. For India to make it to the WTC Final without depending on other results, they have to win both of their remaining matches against Australia. If India wins, their percentage points will increase to 60.53%, which will secure their position in the final.
Possible Outcomes:
– India Wins Both Matches: A crucial point to consider here is if India wins both of its remaining matches against Australia, it will easily end up with 60.53% points. Here, even if Australia wins both its remaining matches against Sri Lanka, Australia will only reach 57.02%, thus still short of the needed percentage to surpass India.
– India Wins One and Draws One
If India wins one match and the other is drawn, they will end up with 57.02% points. This depends on Australia not winning more than 16 points in their series against Sri Lanka. If Australia wins just one match against Sri Lanka, India will require Sri Lanka to draw at least one match to remain ahead.
– India Wins One and Loses One:
In the case where India wins one and loses one, they would slip to 55.26%, and a must for them is to win by at least 1-0 margin over Sri Lanka for them to continue battling to be at the finals.
– Both Matches End in Draws:
If India loses at least one more of the three remaining games, and all the games end in ties, then they’ll end the league on 53.51% and no longer in their hands. If Sri Lanka defeats Australia 2-0, then it would mean that Sri Lanka surpassed India; India would still be eliminated. Now Australia must win just one more game if the series with Sri Lanka is drawn to stay ahead.
– One Win, One Loss (with a Draw): And if India loses one, and draws the other; their percentage goes down to 51.75%. Thus, India will be all out of the running for the final, as an Australian 2-0 loss to Sri Lanka, at the very least will mean that Australia will total more percentage points.
Australia’s Qualifying Scenarios
Percentage points are currently 58.59%
Remaining Matches: 2 vs India (home), 2 vs Sri Lanka (away)
Australia has more flexibility; however, they still face the pressure of performing well in their remaining matches to clinch a final spot. With 58.59% points, Australia also has some room for mistakes but needs to win one game against India and, in the series against Sri Lanka, perform well at least.
Possible Futures:
– Australia Win Both the Match vs India:
If Australia wins both matches against India, then they can reach the final even losing 2-0 against Sri Lanka. That would be still enough for Australia with 57.02% points to get the second position.
– Australia wins one match and draws one vs India:
A win and a draw against India would leave Australia very much in the running for qualification. If they should win one match and the other is drawn, they remain ahead of India. However, they would still have to face Sri Lanka to be sure of qualification, meaning Australia must win at least a match against Sri Lanka
– Australia Draws One and Loses the other Match against India
If Australia loses one single match to India, they must win 2-0 against Sri Lanka. One draw or loss to Sri Lanka would put them out of the running, as Sri Lanka or India could end up ahead of them.
– Australia Loses Both Matches vs India:
If Australia loses both of their remaining matches to India, they will be out of the race for the final. Then, regardless of the results in their series against Sri Lanka, Australia will not be able to qualify.
Sri Lanka’s Probability of Reaching the Final
Current Percentage Points: 45.45%
Remaining Matches: 2 vs Australia (home)
Sri Lanka is in a vulnerable position and their chance of qualifying is dependent upon almost a near-perfect outcome. They can qualify, but only if they beat Australia in both the remaining matches, bringing their percentage points to a maximum of 53.85%. Even then, their qualification is far from guaranteed.
Possible Outcomes:
– Sri Lanka Beats Australia 2-0
If Sri Lanka wins 2-0 against Australia, they will finish on 53.85% points. For Sri Lanka to qualify, two of the following conditions must be met:
-Both Tests between India and Australia are drawn: This means that Australia cannot score more points than Sri Lanka.
– Australia win one of their last two at home: Australia’s victory over Sri Lanka in any of their remaining matches will leave Australia in front of Sri Lanka. In other words, they would automatically qualify.
Any Other Outcome:
In any other situation, whether Australia wins, draws, or loses against Sri Lanka, or India performs well against Australia, Sri Lanka will be knocked out of the race for the final.
The last available spot in the 2023-2025 World Test Championship final is still open, but the competition is quite a tight one. India, Australia, and Sri Lanka will each have different routes to qualification, but the scope for error is narrow.
– India: They can qualify if they win both their remaining Tests against Australia, but every loss will leave them subject to other results.
– Australia is more flexible and can still qualify even with a few losses, but they need to play well against both India and Sri Lanka.
– Sri Lanka has the toughest task, needing to beat Australia 2-0 and hope for favorable outcomes elsewhere.
As the final matches come to a close, the race for the WTC Final will surely be an exciting and tense conclusion to this cycle.
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