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WTC: The Indian cricket team is in a do-or-die situation as it heads into the final Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG). The third Test in Melbourne has put India’s chances of reaching the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final in precarious situations. While a win in Sydney is crucial, fans are also wondering—what happens if the match ends in a draw? Here’s an in-depth analysis of India’s qualification equation and the challenges it faces.
India’s Current Position in the WTC Standings
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India is behind in the series and in a very close contest for the WTC final, and it will lose the game at Melbourne. Sri Lanka also stays in contention for the desired slot along with Australia. The victory in the Sydney Test will ensure India’s final berth to compete with South Africa for the championship title, whereas a draw or loss will knock it out of contention and the focus will be on the white-ball series ahead and the ICC Champions Trophy.
What Will Happen If India Wins the Sydney Test?
If India wins in Sydney, its points percentage will increase to 55.26%, keeping it alive in the race. This scenario also depends on the series between Australia and Sri Lanka.
– Role of Sri Lanka in the Equation:
Sri Lanka will have to win both the Tests on their home turf against Australia to surpass India. If Sri Lanka wins one Test and the other goes into a draw, India will still qualify, as Sri Lanka’s points percentage will be 48.72% and Australia’s will come down to 53.51%, which will also be short of India’s total.
Thus, India’s triumph in Sydney continues its hopes. It will nevertheless depend on a favorable outcome for the Australia-Sri Lanka series.
What If the Test is at Sydney Stalls?
If the Sydney Test ends in a draw, the Indian campaign for the WTC will come to an abrupt halt. A draw would mean that India’s points percentage would not be high enough to compete with Australia and Sri Lanka. This means:
– Australia Automatically Qualifies: A drawn match ensures that Australia qualifies for the final, no matter what the outcome of their match against Sri Lanka is.
– Sri Lanka vs. Australia Determines the Second Team: Sri Lanka and Australia will play out a two-Test series that will determine which of them plays South Africa in the final.
For India, anything less than a win in Sydney would mean elimination, and therefore an outright win is needed.
Why is Winning in Sydney Challenging for India?
The following are the reasons why a win in Sydney is a very difficult task for India:
1. Player Form and Mental Pressure Indian key players are not in good form, and the team is under tremendous pressure after the defeat in Melbourne. The mental stress of knowing their WTC final hopes are slipping away makes it even tougher.
2. India’s Poor Record at Sydney
Sydney has not been a happy hunting ground for India. Out of 13 matches played at the SCG, India has managed just one victory—way back in 1978. Since then, the team has drawn 7 matches and lost 5.
– Historical Context:
The only win came when most of the current squad’s players were not even born. This poor record highlights the enormity of the task ahead.
3. Dominance of Australia in Home Conditions
Australia’s familiarity with home conditions and their strong bowling attack, coupled with India’s batting inconsistencies, pose a significant challenge.
All Eyes on Sydney
The Sydney Test will be India’s defining moment in the WTC campaign. A win will keep the dream alive only if Sri Lanka delivers against Australia, but a draw or defeat seals the fate and sends Australia into the final.
While history and current form weigh heavily against the Indian team, cricket is known for its unpredictability. Whether India can overcome the odds and secure a historic win at Sydney remains to be seen, but one thing is clear—this match is a must-win for keeping their WTC hopes alive.
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